After Alfred: why Australia paused its 2025 macadamia forecast
The March 2025 delay separated a planned crop estimate from the assessment still under way. A later AMS forecast and independent orchard reporting show why national supply and local damage need separate treatment.
Australia’s macadamia industry paused its opening 2025 crop forecast after ex-Tropical Cyclone Alfred. In its 11 March announcement, the Australian Macadamia Society said its planned estimate would be reviewed and an update released within two weeks. This is an archive account of that decision, not a current crop forecast.
The estimate was still being assessed
The planned figure was 56,890 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture, also expressed by AMS as 61,000 tonnes at 10% moisture. Those are two stated moisture bases for the estimate, not two separate crops. The announcement did not establish a measured final harvest or quantify the total storm loss.
What followed
On 26 March 2025, AMS issued a forecast of 55,960 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture, equivalent in its announcement to 60,000 tonnes in-shell at 10% moisture. Both remained forecasts. This later source substantiates the follow-up that the earlier Mac Daily account mentioned without a separate citation.
Independent ABC Rural reporting, first published on 17 March 2025, documented macadamia orchard losses through interviews with growers on the NSW North Coast. That field reporting adds a separate view of local damage; it does not independently measure Australia’s crop or validate the AMS tonnage.
How to use this record
Keep the announcement date, forecast status and moisture basis attached when quoting these figures. A national forecast and reports from individual orchards answer different questions. Neither provides a basis here for calculating a grower’s yield loss, a final national crop loss or a current price outlook.
Archive note: this account was compiled in August 2026, after the events. The original publication identity and history are retained. The ABC page also records a September 2025 update; its March date is its first publication date.
Corrections
- materialOrigin not recorded
Added dated primary AMS sources and independent ABC field reporting, separated forecasts and moisture bases from local orchard damage, marked the account as an archive and replaced the unrelated diagram with a labelled conceptual illustration. Original publication identity, dates, media and history are retained.
Previously: The archive account lacked structured archive dates and separately bound support for its later forecast. Its orchard-spacing diagram did not illustrate the forecast assessment.
Sources - minorPublisher correction
Replace the old lead with a reviewed disclosed rain-glass uncertainty illustration, preserving every original article field, citation date and historical forecast qualification.
Previously: The archive lead image predates the owner’s revised image brief.
Sources
- Australian Macadamia Society — 2025 Australian macadamia crop forecast delayed due to Tropical Cyclone Alfred - Australian Macadamiastrade.australian-macadamias.org · published · retrieved
- Australian Macadamia Society — Australian macadamia industry spared from wide-spread cyclone impact, with minimal crop forecast adjustment - Australian Macadamiastrade.australian-macadamias.org · published · retrieved
- ABC Rural — Ex-Cyclone Alfred costs NSW farmers millions in stock loss and damage - ABC Newsabc.net.au · published · retrieved
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