INC’s March 2025 country forecast table was not one common yardstick

The International Nut and Dried Fruit Council dated the review 13 March 2025 and said its information was prepared between mid-January and mid-March. The country notes show that this was a compilation of industry inputs: the South African estimate was attributed to Macadamias South Africa, while the Australian estimate was attributed to the Australian Macadamia Society. A new publisher did not turn those underlying figures into independent measurements.

For South Africa, the review gave 93,588 metric tonnes in shell at 1.5% moisture and the equivalent presentation of 95,500 tonnes at 3.5%. The earlier Mac Daily account incorrectly labelled 95,500 tonnes as a 10% figure. Later reporting by The Macadamia said SAMAC’s forecast had been cut to 85,166 tonnes from 93,433 tonnes at the start of the year. That later article does not state a moisture basis for either number, and its opening comparator differs from INC’s 93,588-ton line. It supports a downward forecast revision; it does not support a like-for-like percentage calculation or the previously stated 81,660-ton closed result.

Australia provides the clean comparison. INC recorded the opening estimate at 56,890 tonnes in shell at 3.5% moisture. On 26 March, AMS revised that to 55,960 tonnes at 3.5%, also presenting the same forecast as 60,000 tonnes at 10%. Its December release put the final crop at 43,800 tonnes at 3.5%, or 46,940 tonnes at 10%, based on actual factory receipts from handler members plus estimated production for non-members. Against the opening 3.5% estimate, the final crop was 13,090 tonnes lower, a 23.0% shortfall. That is Mac Daily’s calculation: (43,800 − 56,890) ÷ 56,890 × 100.

For Kenya, INC forecast 47,500 tonnes and described the number only as “in-shell basis”. It did not provide a moisture percentage in that country note. A later USDA Foreign Agricultural Service report showed a 47,000-tonne 2025 estimate sourced to AFA and FAS Nairobi, but it too was labelled as an estimate and did not supply a moisture basis for the plotted production figure. The 500-tonne difference therefore is not presented here as a measured forecast miss or a final outcome.

The practical rule is simple: retain the origin, status and moisture basis beside every national figure. Forecasts cannot be treated as final receipts; differently based in-shell tonnages cannot be compared as if they were normalized; and multiple articles repeating one association’s number do not create multiple independent observations.

From the archive: the review belongs to 13 March 2025. This account was first compiled on 31 August 2026 and corrected in September 2026. The lead image is an AI-generated conceptual illustration of moisture-basis comparison, not a measurement display or evidence of any orchard or harvest.