Australia's March 2025 macadamia forecast changed again before the final crop

The 55,960-tonne figure belongs to Australia's 26 March 2025 macadamia forecast, not the year's final crop. The Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) reduced its estimate from 56,890 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture. It also reported the revised forecast as 60,000 tonnes in-shell at 10% moisture. These are the authority's stated bases, not kernel weights or a conversion calculated here.

At that March update, AMS described cyclone-related damage and delayed harvesting in parts of New South Wales while Queensland's growing regions were largely unaffected. That was a dated assessment of the outlook, rather than a guarantee of the season's eventual supply.

On 1 July, AMS lowered its forecast to a range of 37,300–41,970 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture, also stated as 40,000–45,000 tonnes in-shell at 10% moisture. It cited continuing weather and orchard disruption, with the estimate informed by handler receipts and estimated production from non-members.

On 3 December, AMS reported the final 2025 crop as 43,800 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture, or 46,940 tonnes at 10% moisture. The association again described prolonged rainfall and difficult orchard access. The releases do not isolate a single weather event's contribution to the final shortfall.

All three updates originate with AMS. They provide a documented forecast-to-outturn sequence, not three independent measurements. Buyers comparing the figures should keep the reporting date, forecast or final status, in-shell basis and moisture level together.

This historical correction preserves the original publication dates and article history. It replaces the unsupported categorical claim that the cyclone was not a cause and binds the later updates to their own dated primary sources.