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Trade & Policy · South Africa

South Africa's July 2025 macadamia forecast was revised down

July 2025 reporting put South Africa's revised crop forecast at 85,166 tonnes, below the opening estimate of 93,433 tonnes. These were forecasts, not a confirmed final harvest.

By Mac Daily NewsroomPublished · Updated
From the archiveBrief · 197 words
AI-generated conceptual illustration of round macadamia shells beneath a paper cloud and its shadow.

Farmer's Weekly reported the revision on 16 July 2025, attributing the figures to Macadamias South Africa (SAMAC). Its account described lower-than-expected yields and weather-related challenges in the producing regions. FreshPlaza separately described the same forecast as dry nuts-in-shell (DNIS). Neither retrieved report establishes an exact moisture percentage, so these quantities should not be compared directly with kernel figures or in-shell totals reported on another moisture basis.

The two reports also captured different company perspectives. Farmer's Weekly quoted Global Macadamias chief executive Shane Hartman on the possibility that a smaller crop could ease near-term tariff pressure, while warning against treating that as a durable solution. FreshPlaza interviewed Royal Macadamia general manager Jan van der Merwe about slower American buying of certain kernel styles and approaches to other destinations.

These were commercial assessments made during an unsettled July 2025 market. They do not establish subsequent sales, prices, a final crop total or the current tariff rules. Repeated SAMAC forecast figures are one underlying estimate, not independent crop measurements.

This archive correction replaces the homepage citation with the dated report, identifies the figures as the 2025 forecast, and removes an unsupported later harvest total. The original archive dates are retained.

Corrections

  • materialPublisher correction

    Dated July 2025 original reporting is cited directly. The 85,166-tonne figure is attributed as the 2025 forecast, not final output; DNIS is attributed to FreshPlaza without inventing an exact moisture percentage. The unsupported outcome and settled trade implications are removed.

    Previously: The archive described the forecast as a 2024/25 harvest, cited a newspaper homepage and asserted an unsupported later 81,660-tonne outcome and implied settled trade effects.

    Sources

Sources

  1. Farmer's Weekly — Worldwide macadamia shortage softens tariff blowfarmersweekly.co.za · published · retrieved
  2. FreshPlaza — Zero-rated South African macadamia exports to China will soften blow of U.S. tariffsfreshplaza.com · retrieved

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