China’s macadamia forecasts: keep the period and moisture basis together
USDA’s 91,000-tonne forecast covers the September–August 2025/26 marketing year. A later 108,000-tonne outlook specifies 3.5% moisture; the two figures do not establish a measured production increase.
Buyers assessing China’s macadamia supply need to keep the period and measurement basis attached to each forecast. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service’s 21 November 2025 Tree Nuts Annual forecast 91,000 metric tonnes in-shell for marketing year 2025/26, running from September to August. Its projected increase of more than 30% was a forecast against the previous marketing year, not a final harvest result.
What the USDA figure measures
The macadamia paragraph on page 3 specifies in-shell production but gives no moisture percentage. This record therefore keeps that basis as stated. It does not relabel the estimate as dry nut-in-shell at 3.5% moisture, convert it into kernel tonnes or treat it as an estimate of exportable stock.
A later outlook uses another basis
Produce Report’s 1 June 2026 account of a presentation by MWT Foods’ Andrew Waring puts China’s 2026 forecast at 108,000 metric tonnes. That report explicitly describes estimates for in-shell nuts at 3.5% moisture. It provides a separate commercial outlook, rather than independent confirmation of USDA’s earlier marketing-year forecast. The underlying estimation methods have not been reconciled here.
Why the distinction matters
Subtracting the two numbers would not establish a measured increase in Chinese production. The outlooks have different publication dates and period descriptions, and the USDA macadamia paragraph does not state the moisture basis needed for a matched comparison. We have not calculated a growth rate between them or selected either as a final crop result.
This reviewed archive record separates the USDA report from the later industry presentation and corrects the earlier unsupported attribution of the 108,000-tonne figure to INC. The original publication timestamps remain in the history; the report date is identified separately. The accompanying AI illustration is a metaphor for checking reports, not a copy of either source document or documentary evidence of a harvest.
Corrections
- materialOrigin not recorded
Bound the original USDA forecast to its dated primary PDF and the later 2026 outlook to Produce Report’s account of an MWT Foods presentation. Kept the different periods and moisture bases distinct. Corrected archive annotation and replaced the spacing graphic with a labelled conceptual illustration, preserving original publication dates, media and history.
Previously: The archive account used a December secondary-report dateline for a November USDA forecast, attributed an unbound later 108,000-tonne figure to INC and used an unrelated orchard-spacing graphic.
Sources - minorPublisher correction
Replace the old lead with reviewed, disclosed conceptual artwork while preserving original article prose, dates, citations and claim evidence. These historical source facts were not newly reverified.
Previously: The archive lead image predates the owner’s revised image brief.
Sources
- USDA Foreign Agricultural Service — China: Tree Nuts Annual, CH2025-0198apps.fas.usda.gov · published · retrieved
- Produce Report — Global Macadamia Market Shifts as China’s Output Surgesproducereport.com · published · retrieved
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