Australia’s July crop forecast moved down to 56,888 tonnes as harvest stayed uneven
Australia’s industry body cut its 2026 macadamia forecast after the June harvest assessment. The revision kept expected production above the difficult 2025 season, but harvest was still incomplete in parts of New South Wales and Queensland and the final crop had not yet been confirmed.
On 15 July 2026, the Australian Macadamia Society (AMS) revised the national forecast to 56,888 tonnes in shell at 3.5% moisture. It presented the same forecast as about 61,000 tonnes at 10% moisture, within a 60,000–62,000-tonne range at that basis. Those are two moisture presentations of the forecast, not quantities that should be added together.
The March opening forecast had been 59,080 tonnes at 3.5% moisture, or 63,350 tonnes at 10%. On the matching 3.5% basis, the July revision was 2,192 tonnes lower, a 3.7% reduction. That percentage is Mac Daily’s calculation: (59,080 − 56,888) ÷ 59,080 × 100.
AMS attributed the adjustment to updated industry data from the June harvest assessment and described sharply different progress between regions. It said Bundaberg was around 90–95% harvested, while persistent rain had delayed work in the Northern Rivers, Gympie and Glass House Mountains. It also said kernel recovery had been lower than expected early in the season but had generally improved as harvest progressed. These are attributed industry-body observations; they are not an independently measured allocation of the national revision between weather, region or variety.
An independent market view published by ofi in May had placed Australia’s 2026 crop at roughly 56,000–58,000 metric tonnes NIS. That earlier range provides useful context for market expectations before the July announcement. It does not independently verify AMS’s later harvest assessment or its regional explanations.
For buyers and processors, the July number remained a forecast. AMS said final production volumes were still unconfirmed and would be released after harvest concluded. The useful comparison is therefore forecast to forecast on the same moisture basis: 56,888 tonnes at 3.5% in July versus 59,080 tonnes at 3.5% in March. The 2025 crop figure of 43,800 tonnes at 3.5% is a completed-season comparator, not proof of the 2026 outcome.
From the archive: the forecast was released on 15 July 2026. This Mac Daily account was first compiled on 31 August 2026 and corrected in September 2026. The lead image is an AI-generated conceptual illustration of a forecast coming into focus as harvest data arrives; it is not a documentary orchard scene or evidence of the forecasting method.
Corrections
- materialOrigin not recorded
The revision binds the 15 July AMS forecast and regional observations, labels the matching-basis 3.7% calculation, adds an independent earlier ofi market range without calling it corroboration, preserves forecast status and replaces the misleading chart with a labelled conceptual illustration.
Previously: The archive brief relied on one source, compressed all regional observations into one unsupported sentence, retained no citable claims and credited its chart to an incorrect 7 September source date.
Sources - minorPublisher correction
Replace the old lead with reviewed, disclosed conceptual artwork while preserving original article prose, dates, citations and claim evidence. These historical source facts were not newly reverified.
Previously: The archive lead image predates the owner’s revised image brief.
Sources
- Australian Macadamia Society — Australian macadamia crop forecast revised to 56,888 tonnestrade.australian-macadamias.org · published · retrieved
- ofi — Global Market & Crop Update - May 2026shop.ofi.com · published · retrieved
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