Australia’s 2025 crop: 23% below the opening forecast

Australia finished its difficult 2025 macadamia season with 43,800 tonnes of nut-in-shell (NIS) at 3.5% moisture, according to the Australian Macadamia Society’s final release dated 2 December 2025. AMS also reported 46,940 tonnes at 10% moisture. Those are two moisture presentations of the same national crop; they are not separate volumes to add together.

The opening estimate was 56,890 tonnes NIS at 3.5% moisture. By the update dated 26 March, AMS had reduced it to 55,960 tonnes on that basis. Comparing the opening figure with the final result gives a shortfall of 13,090 tonnes, or 23.0%. That percentage is Mac Daily’s calculation: (43,800 − 56,890) ÷ 56,890 × 100. It measures a miss against a forecast for the same crop year, not a fall against the previous harvest.

The final national total combines factory receipts from Australian Macadamia Handlers Association members with estimates for non-members. AMS says the association represents about 90% of the crop. Its account attributes crop damage, difficult orchard access and delayed harvesting to prolonged rain; some growers continued into September and October. This is the industry body’s explanation of the season, rather than an independent weather-impact assessment by Mac Daily.

A different perspective comes from ABC’s reporting published in February 2025. Grower Graham Wessling described confidence in consumer demand, while orchard manager Johan Oosthuizen discussed trees starting to bear and the importance of better prices for continued development. These interviews add independently reported grower context to the production outlook. They predate the harvest result and do not independently verify the final tonnage. The two AMS releases also share one originating organisation; counting their titles separately would overstate corroboration.

Our reading is that a useful crop comparison must distinguish potential, forecast and realised output. The dated figures show how expectations changed, while the grower interviews explain why planting confidence could coexist with uncertainty. The evidence here does not establish a current selling price, export availability or a 2026 crop result. Those require separate, dated observations.

From the archive: this account was first compiled on 31 August 2026 and revised in September 2026. The final crop release belongs to December 2025. The new harvest illustration is conceptual, not a photograph of that season.