Australia's 2026 macadamia rebound remained a forecast after July revision
AMS's early outlook put the crop at 59,080 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture. Its July estimate was lower; neither figure was a final harvest result.
AMS's finalized2025 industry total and revised2026 forecast, both tonnes in-shell at3.5% moisture. The2026 figure is not a final outturn. Deterministic chart from approved cited figures.
Chart: Mac Daily, from the sources listedAbout our imagery
Australia's expected macadamia recovery in 2026 needs to be read as a sequence of forecasts. A release dated 10 March on the Australian Macadamia Society's industry site put the crop at 59,080 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture, also stated as 63,350 tonnes at 10% moisture. AMS described an early estimate based on climate modelling, with the result still dependent on seasonal conditions.
The comparison was with the 2025 crop, which AMS had finalised in a release dated 3 December 2025 at 43,800 tonnes in-shell at 3.5% moisture, or 46,940 tonnes at 10% moisture. That historical result and the 2026 outlook are different kinds of evidence: one is a reported final crop, the other an estimate.
On 15 July 2026, AMS's trade-site update lowered the forecast to 56,888 tonnes at 3.5% moisture, or 61,000 tonnes in-shell at 10% moisture. It gave a forecast range of 60,000–62,000 tonnes at 10% moisture, following the June harvest assessment. The July release said final production volumes were still to be confirmed.
These moisture bases are those reported by AMS. No kernel weight or independently calculated conversion is implied. The dated March and July forecasts and the December 2025 result all originate with the same industry authority; they are not independent corroboration.
For buyers, the useful distinction is the status and date of each figure, rather than treating the early rebound outlook as supply already delivered. This historical correction supplies the missing dated support for the later revision and the prior-year comparison. It preserves the original publication dates and history, without claiming a final 2026 result.
The data behind the story
Each observation keeps its own reporting basis, period and source. These values are not a combined total.
Australia · Production
56,888 tRevisedBasis: NIS · Moisture: 3.5%Crop year: 2026Australian Macadamia SocietySource published:Source retrieved:Australia · Production
43,800 tActualBasis: NIS · Moisture: 3.5%Crop year: 2025Australian Macadamia SocietySource published:Source retrieved:
Corrections
- materialPublisher correction
The March2026 forecast, July2026 revision and December2025 final crop now bind to dated AMS releases, preserving in-shell/moisture bases and forecast-versus-final status. All originate with AMS. Original publication dates, article history and original media are preserved; no final2026 crop is asserted.
Previously: The archive appended the July2026 revision without a dated source or claim binding, and compared2025 outturn without a dated primary final-crop citation.
Sources - minorPublisher correction
A reviewed deterministic chart now displays approved Figure236 finalized2025 industry total and Figure238 July2026 revised forecast, both tonnes in-shell at3.5% moisture. The2026 observation remains a forecast, not a final harvest outcome or realized growth. Existing article identity, publication dates, prose, prior correction history and original media remain preserved.
Previously: The dated forecast report had no accompanying data chart linking its finalized2025 comparison and revised2026 forecast to the approved figures on a common moisture basis.
Sources
Sources
- Australian Macadamia Society — Cautious optimism for 2026 Australian macadamia cropaustralianmacadamias.org · published · retrieved
- Australian Macadamia Society — Australian macadamia crop forecast revised to 56,888 tonnestrade.australian-macadamias.org · published · retrieved
- Australian Macadamia Society — 2025 Australian macadamia crop finalised following challenging seasonaustralianmacadamias.org · published · retrieved
- Australian Macadamia Society — 2025 Australian macadamia crop finalised following challenging season - Australian Macadamiastrade.australian-macadamias.org · published · retrieved
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